ranking real estate

Zillow Home Value Index for Honolulu, Kaimuki, Palolo, Ewa and Kaneohe

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The current First Time Homebuyer’s Tax Credit of $8,000 is due to expire on December 1, 2009. On the Island of Hawaii we are seeing an uptick in activity over the past few weeks. Presumably part of that activity is driven by these First Time Homebuyer’s eagerness to qualify for the credit.

Based on some of the numbers I posted last week for Residential Sales for the Big Island, overall we have seen an increase of 25.27% in activity Year-to-Date. That is a significant number for the Island, in regards to activity, although at the same time we have seen an overall Median price decrease for the Island of 18.75% with 7 of 9 districts showing a decrease in Median home prices.

While the Tax Credit is not the sole reason for the increase in activity, it is a major factor. That is why the National Association of Realtors is pushing hard for an extension of the program. One of the fears voiced, should this program end, is that activity will slow significantly which will put further downward pressure on Median home prices.

At its best the $8,000 tax credit has been described as a tool to increase activity and sales in the Residential Real Estate market at its worst its been called a prop which only stalls the inevitable, falsely holding up a market that needs to fully correct before it can be healthy.

As the deadline for the sunset of this credit nears and then passes, we shall see.

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Source of data is from Hawaii Information Systems. 3rd Quarter 2009 Stats as of 10/2/2009

YOY – Residential Sales  for the Entire Island rose 25.27% from 273 (2008) to 342 (2009)

Increase in Residential Sales by District:

Puna sales rose 23.23% from 99 sales (2008) to 122 Sales (2009)
Kau sales rose 108.33% from 12 sales (2008) to 25 sales (2009)
South Kona sales rose 25% from 8 sales (2008) to 10 sales (2009)
North Kona sales rose 67.44% from 43 sales (2008) to 72 sales (2009)
South Kohala sales rose 13.33% from 45 sales (2008) to 51 sales (2009)
North Kohala sales rose 150% from 4 sales (2008) to 10 sales (2009)

Decrease in Residential Sales by District:

South Hilo sales decreased 11.11% from 54 sales (2008) to 48 sales (2009)
North Hilo sales decreased 66.67% from 3 sales (2008) to 1 sales (2009)
Hamakua sales decreased 40% from 5 sales (2008) to 3 sales (2009)

YOY – Residential Median Price for the Entire Island was down 18.75% from $320,000 (2008) to $260,000 (2009)

Increase in Median Sales Price by District:

North Hilo median price rose by 204.49% from $156,000 (2008) to $475,000 (2009)
South Kona median price rose by 20.58% from $311,000 (2008) to $375,000 (2009)

Decrease in Median Sales Price by District:

Puna median price decreased by 19.35% from $215,000 (2008) to $173,400 (2009)
South Hilo median price decreased by 13.78% from $333,450 (2008) to $287,500 (2009)
Hamakua median price decreased by 60.00% from $400,000 (2008) to $160,000 (2009)
North Kohala median price decreased by 30.77% from $827,000 (2008) to $572,550 (2009)
South Kohala median price decreased by 19.33% from $445,000 (2008) to $359,000 (2009)
North Kona median price decreased by 24.41% from $549,000 (2008) to $415,000 (2009)
Kau median price decreased by 34.50% from $229,000 (2008) to $150,000 (2009)

* all increases and decreases need to take into account overall activity. less actual sales will allows for dramatic shifts in percentage of increase/decrease in data.

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Big Island of Hawaii – Zillow Home Value Index for Hilo, Kailua-Kona and Waikoloa over the past 1 yr.

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What is going on with the Hilo residential market? From June to August we have seen the year to date number of sales continue to drop, but at a slower rate, while the actual year to date median home price has shown a slight uptick.

June YTD – Sales Activity <17.65%> Median Home Price $256,250
July YTD – Sales Activity <14.42%> Median Home Price $257,500
August YTD – Sales Activity <16.39%> Median Home Price $263,750

Summer months tend to be months with higher activity and the added sales will always have an effect on the overall median price. While it is far to early to call a bottom in price drops, it is interesting to see a 3 month period in which median prices did not fall sharply.

The next 3 month period leading up to December should be extremely interesting to see how the Hilo market reacts. Will we begin to see any effects from job cuts by the State, as well as the constant talk of a foreclosure wave due to Alt-A loans coming due, as well as the effect/non-effect of Government Stimulus money on our local economy and will our jobless rate continue to hover around 10%?

Some of these questions should be answered over the next few months…

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Interesting notes and highlights for July 2009 Big Island of Hawaii Real Estate Market.

Year over Year (for July) Residential sales (excluding condos) were up 16% from 100 transactions to 116.

For the same period Residential sales volume was up 5.39% from $38,836,650 to $40,930,001
For the same period Residential Median Sales Price decreased 12.39% from $299,000 to $261,950

As compared to June 2009:

Residential sales transactions were up 13 from 103 (in June)
Residential sales volume was down <$12,173,499> from $53,103,500 (in June)
Residential Median Sale Price was down <$28,050> from $290,000

Overall:

All numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt as total number of transactions is fairly low and can change significantly based upon 1 or 2 sales which might be away from the norm. Nevertheless the Big Island Market in general has continued to show an overall softness with certain segments of the market fairing only slightly better then others.

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Sold July 17, 2009

51 Kalakaua Building – located at 51 Kalakaua, Hilo, HI
Commercial Building consisting of 2,481 sqft building on 6,378 sqft lot

List price: $359,000.00 Sold price: $325,000

Located in beautiful Downtown Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii this commercial property originally built in 1938 offered many opportunities to both end users or investors. Originally used as a Dry Cleaners, the property offered 3 distinct commercial spaces as well as a “old plantation style” home in the back.

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